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The US dollar hovered below the 98 mark, and Trump's 30% tariff stick hit the EU and Mexico!

Post time: 2025-07-14 views

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Group]: The US dollar hovers below the 98 mark, and Trump's 30% tariff stick hits the EU and Mexico!". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On July 14, early trading in the Asian market on Monday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 97.82. Last Friday, the US dollar index fluctuated in range, always hovering below the 98 mark, and finally closed up 0.307% to 97.85, with a cumulative increase of nearly 1% throughout the week, leaving the three-year low. The yield on the U.S. Treasury rose sharply, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closing at 4.412%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closing at 3.91%. As risk aversion sentiment heated up after Trump announced more tariff letters, spot gold rose for the third consecutive day, hitting its highest level since June 24 during the session, and finally closed up 0.99% to close at $3,355.91/ounce; spot silver rose more significantly, eventually closing up 3.56% to $38.38/ounce, a new high since September 2011. As the oil market focus shifts to potential U.S. sanctions on Russia, the two oils rose intraday. WTI crude oil station rose 2.55% to $67.59 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 2.53% to $70.04 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 97.82. Entering July, the US dollar index rebounded from its year-on-year low of 96.37 (July 1) to around 98.00, ending its two consecutive weeks of decline. The US Treasury yields remained at a high range, and the stable performance of economic data such as non-farm employment in June provided support for the US dollar. According to data from the U.S. Department of Labor, non-farm employment added 206,000 new jobs in June, slightly exceeding market expectations, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, indicating that the US economy is still resilient.live. Technically, the most recent important resistance level of the US dollar index is in the range of 98.00–98.20. If the U.S. dollar index climbs above the 98.20 level, it will move towards the next resistance level of 99.20–99.40.

The US dollar hovered below the 98 mark, and Trumps 30% tariff stick hit the EU and Mexico!(图1)

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1689. On Saturday, Trump said that he would impose 30% tariffs on goods imported from the EU and Mexico from August 1 respectively. Recently, the number of initial unemployment claims announced by the United States has dropped to 227,000, a seven-week low, strengthening the resilience of the US labor market and thus supporting the strengthening of the US dollar. At the same time, the CME interest rate observation tool shows that the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in July have dropped to less than 5%, while the expectation of a rate cut in September has also dropped from 72% to 65%. Technically, successful testing of support level 1.1675–1.1690 will push the EUR/USD toward the next support level 1.1575–1.1590.

The US dollar hovered below the 98 mark, and Trumps 30% tariff stick hit the EU and Mexico!(图2)

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3501. The UK will release June CPI data on Wednesday, which has a significant impact on the pound's trend. In the latest interest rate decision, the Bank of England kept the interest rate unchanged, but the results were slightly dovish than expected. Six of the nine policy makers voted to keep interest rates unchanged, while the remaining three chose to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The Bank of England pointed out that GDP growth remains weak and the labor market continues to relax, showing obvious signs of slack. This prompted traders to increase their rate cut bets, with a 77% chance of a 25 basis point cut for the upcoming August meeting. Another rate cut before the end of the year has been fully priced. Technically, if GBP/USD closes below support level 1.3500–1.3520, it will move to the next support level 1.3370–1.3390.

The US dollar hovered below the 98 mark, and Trumps 30% tariff stick hit the EU and Mexico!(图3)

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, gold hovered around 3372.5. Trump announced last weekend that he would impose a 30% tariff on goods imported from the EU from August 1, further raising market concerns about international trade and providing momentum for gold prices. After a calm week after Independence Day, the market will resume a more conventional pace of economic data this week. The June CPI report and New York manufacturing survey will be released Tuesday, followed by June PPI data released on Wednesday. Traders will focus on June retail sales reports, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey and weekly unemployment benefits filing data on Thursday. Housing starts in June and University of Michigan consumption will be released Friday morningpreliminary investigation of the confidence of the person. It is worth mentioning that US President Trump plans to issue a "major statement" on the Russian issue on Monday, and investors also need to pay attention. In addition, the market is concerned about the speeches of several Fed officials, the Fed's Beige Book; speeches by the Bank of England governor and Treasury Secretary, and a two-day meeting of G20 Treasury Secretary and Central Bank governors that began on Thursday (July 17-18).

The US dollar hovered below the 98 mark, and Trumps 30% tariff stick hit the EU and Mexico!(图4)

Technical: From the daily chart, gold once again gained support rebound near the main upward trend line. The bulls enter the market with a stop loss set below the trend line, with the goal of rebounding to the 3438 resistance level. Short sellers may choose to wait for the price to reach this resistance level or fall below the main trend line before entering the market to find better shorting opportunities. Judging from the 4-hour chart, the price breaks through the secondary downward trend line that previously defined the pullback trend. After the breakthrough, the bulls increased their positions, pushing the price upward approaching the 3438 resistance level. The short sellers lack effective support at this time and may choose to wait for the price to fall below the main trend line before considering short selling. Judging from the 1-hour chart, there is a secondary upward trend line that supports bulls' momentum on this time frame. The bulls may continue to rely on this trend line to drive prices to new highs, while the bears will look for opportunities to break down, with the goal of pulling back to the 3310 line. The red lines indicate today's average intraday fluctuation range.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Tuesday, crude oil trading around 67.34. After a calm week after Independence Day, the market will resume a more conventional pace of economic data this week. The June CPI report and New York manufacturing survey will be released Tuesday, followed by June PPI data released on Wednesday. Traders will focus on June retail sales reports, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey and weekly unemployment benefits filing data on Thursday. June housing starts and a preliminary survey of consumer confidence at the University of Michigan will be released Friday morning. It is worth mentioning that US President Trump plans to issue a "major statement" on the Russian issue on Monday, and investors also need to pay attention. In addition, the market is concerned about the speeches of several Fed officials, the Fed's Beige Book; speeches by the Bank of England governor and Treasury Secretary, and a two-day meeting of G20 Treasury Secretary and Central Bank governors that began on Thursday (July 17-18).

The US dollar hovered below the 98 mark, and Trumps 30% tariff stick hit the EU and Mexico!(图5)

Technical: WTI crude oil futures stabilized at the low level of the previous trading day, relying on the key support level of the US$66.00, and were supported by the 50-day moving average (MA50). On a short-term basis, the main bullish trend line was tested, indicating that the support level was becoming stable. On the other hand, after hitting extreme oversold levels, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) begins to show a bullish divergence pattern, coupled with the positive signal of the indicator, which may provide support for a potential bullish rebound in subsequent trading.

Forex July 14, 2025Market transaction reminder

① To be determined Trump issued a statement on the Russian issue

② To be determined China's June trade account

③15:00 State www.centrdom.information Office held a press conference

④20:30 Canada's May wholesale sales monthly rate

The above content is about "[XM Group]: The US dollar hovers below the 98 mark, and Trump's 30% tariff stick hits the EU and Mexico!", which was carefully www.centrdom.infopiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your transaction! Thanks for the support!

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