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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: The Fed is still arguing internally, and OPEC may suspend production increase in October." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Although the July 9 tariff deadline has passed, market participants still face many uncertainties. US President Trump has begun to send letters to www.centrdom.inform the tariff rate one after another. Most countries are still in tense negotiations with the United States, and the tariff implementation date on August 1 is approaching.
The lack of significant influence on U.S. data, the market focus this week was mainly on tariffs and trade agreements. Trump also continued to urge countries to "continue to work" in tariff discussions.
On Thursday, Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting next month, an increase from the 25% set in March. He also warned that tariffs could be higher if Canada fought back, and Trump also recommended raising tariffs on other countries to 15% or 20%, up from the current 10%.
The market responded more calmly to the new tariff statement than the sharp decline that occurred after the "Liberation Day" in April. At that time, major U.S. stock indexes hit their worst weekly declines in nearly six years.
Gold Market:Spot gold fluctuated in the range at the beginning of the week, and once broke through the 3300 mark. However, as the market absorbed the threat of Trump's tariff "stick", the European session began to steadily rebound on Wednesday, closing at $3355.12/ounce this week, rising for the second consecutive week. In addition, data from the central bank shows that my country has increased its holdings of gold for the eighth consecutive month. Spot silver rose significantly on Thursday and Friday, closing at $38.39 per ounce, up for two consecutive weeks, with an increase of nearly 33% this year, the highest since 2011.
Crude oil market: In terms of international oil prices, the situation in the Red Sea has heated up again due to the Houthi attack, Russia's crude oil production in June is still lower than the OPEC+ target, and OPEC+ is expected to suspend production increase in October, etc., but the unexpected increase in US EIA crude oil inventories exceeded market expectations, coupled with the intensification of market concerns about the outlook for global demand, oil prices turned down on Thursday, but continued to rise on Friday, with a cumulative increase of more than 2% this week, the second consecutive week of positive closing.
Review of the news this week 1. Trump has extended the tariff period again, and more than 20 countries receive warnings Trump signed an executive order to extend the deadline for tariff negotiations and the effective date of reciprocal tariffs from July 9 to August 1, and sent letters to more than 20 countries, unilaterally setting a 20%-50% tariff, saying that the negotiations are invalid and implemented from August. Brazil faces a maximum tax rate of 50%. Trump said that because the country's investigation into the former president was a "witch hunting operation", Brazilian President Lula responded strongly and would retaliate, emphasizing that it would not be settled in the US dollar. Canada faces 35% tariffs due to fentanyl inflows and “unfair trade practices”, while the Philippines and other countries face different tax rates. Trump revealed that some countries or regions will directly announce tariff rates, reiterate the threat of imposing 10% tariffs on BRICS products, and predicts to issue tariff notices to EU member states and refute the warning of toy price increase. The EU is preparing retaliatory tariffs of over 100 billion US dollars, partially targeting products from the Republican states in the United States. Trump also plans to impose a 50% tariff on copper products, impose up to 200% tariffs on imported drugs and give drugmakers a one-year adjustment period. This news has driven a sharp rise in copper futures in New York. Japan's chief tariff negotiator is facing difficulties. During the US-Vietnam trade negotiations, Trump suddenly announced a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods, which aroused dissatisfaction on Vietnamese side, weakened other countries' confidence in the US negotiations, and may damage US-Vietnam relations. 2. Some differences within the Federal Reserve, Trump puts pressure on Powell The minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting showed that there were internal differences on interest rate paths. Some officials believed that the rate cut in July was reasonable due to weak labor markets and moderate tariff impacts; most decision makers were worried that tariffs would continue to push up prices and advocated observing more data; a few officials believed that interest rate cuts were not needed before inflation reached its target. The New York and San Francisco Fed warn that short-term interest rates may approach zero again. Powell did not clarify the expectation of interest rate cuts. Trump repeatedly urged him to cut interest rates, accusing too high interest rates of increasing national financing costs, and accusing Powell of poor management and overspending in the renovation of the Federal Reserve headquarters, demanding his resignation.The report was inaccurate. Several regional Fed chairmen revealed the news, and JPMorgan Chase CEO warned the market to underestimate the possibility of the Fed's future interest rate hike. 3. OPEC+ may suspend production increase from October On Thursday, an www.centrdom.informed representative revealed that OPEC+ is discussing that after www.centrdom.infopleting a supply recovery plan of about 2.2 million barrels per day in September, it will suspend further production increase from October. The group has lifted its production cut plan since April, increasing production by 138,000 barrels per day in April, and 411,000 barrels per day per month from May to August. Senior officials in Saudi Arabia and other countries said that the current new supply is in line with market demand. In addition, OPEC released the "2025 World Oil Outlook", lowering its global oil demand forecast for the next four years, but insisting that the peak demand has not reached. The report said that global oil demand averaged 105 million barrels per day this year, increased to 106.3 million barrels per day in 2026 and climbed to 111.6 million barrels per day in 2029, still lower than last year's forecast, and India, the Middle East and Africa are expected to drive long-term demand growth. 4. Nvidia has become the world's first www.centrdom.infopany with a market value of over 4 trillion yuan. The market value of semiconductor giant Nvidia has exceeded US$4 trillion this week, becoming the world's first www.centrdom.infopany with this market value, exceeding the total market value of stocks in Britain, France, Germany and other countries. Its market value has grown rapidly, exceeding US$1 trillion in May 2023, exceeding US$2 trillion in February 2024, and becoming the third www.centrdom.infopany with a market value of over US$3 trillion in June. It has now increased by US$1 trillion in about a year later, and has become the fastest www.centrdom.infopany in the world's market value of US$4 trillion in 30 years. Nvidia's stock price rise is due to its core position in the field of artificial intelligence, and its largest customer's firm spending on AI drives revenue growth. According to Bloomberg data, technology giants such as Microsoft are expected to spend $350 billion in the next fiscal year, higher than this fiscal year. These www.centrdom.infopanies contribute more than 40% of Nvidia's revenue. As of the April quarter, Nvidia's revenue reached $44.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 69%. 5. The Houthi armed forces attacked again in the Red Sea, causing many casualties. At the beginning of the Zhou Dynasty, two merchant ships were attacked by Houthi armed forces in the Red Sea within 48 hours. This is the first time that the Houthi armed forces have successfully attacked merchant ships since November 2023, and it is also one of the deadliest attacks. The attackers attacked with rockets, missiles and drones, killing at least three crew members and hijacking many. The crew had contacted the British Navy and European Navy contingents for help, but there were no warships nearby. Houthi forces said they attacked Israeli-related ships as the war in Gaza continues. Both ships are owned by Greece, with Liberian flag flying, and one was docked in Israel. If the Houthi forces expand their targets, the global shipping system may be further disrupted. The attack took place just two months after Trump announced a ceasefire agreement with the Houthi armed forces. The US Department of Defense said that the ceasefire agreement remains valid because the Houthi armed forces did not attack US ships and the United States has not changed its military posture. 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