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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM official website]: Oil prices remain stable, waiting for the OPEC+ meeting, the market evaluates the effect of trade negotiations, and the gold price returns above 4,000." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Friday (October 31, Beijing time), spot gold traded around US$4,028.50 per ounce. Gold prices rose nearly 2.4% on Thursday, benefiting from the United States Federal Reserve The Reserve Bank's latest interest rate cut has enhanced the appeal of gold. At the same time, the market still has doubts about the actual effect of the latest trade agreement; U.S. crude oil was trading around $60.27 per barrel. Oil prices were stable on Thursday as investors assessed the outcome of trade negotiations and the possibility of OPEC+ increasing production.
U.S. stocks closed down across the board on Thursday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 leading the decline. Shares of social media giant Meta plunged 11.3%, its biggest one-day drop in three years, mainly due to market concerns about its surge in artificial intelligence spending. Microsoft shares also fell 2.9% after the www.centrdom.infopany reported a near-record first-quarter capital expenditure of $35 billion and expected further increases in full-year spending.
In contrast, Google parent www.centrdom.infopany Alphabet bucked the trend and rose 2.5%, benefiting from the solid performance of its advertising and cloud www.centrdom.infoputing businesses. Amazon rose 9% in after-hours trading as strong performance in its cloud www.centrdom.infoputing business offset slower e-commerce growth.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled on Wednesday, but Chairman Powell expressed reservations about whether to cut interest rates again in December, casting doubts on the future policy path. Traders lowered the probability of another rate cut in December to about 70% from more than 90% earlier this week.
As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Index fell 0.23% to close at 47522.12 points; the S&P 500 Index fell 0.99% to close at 47522.12 points.It reported 6822.34 points; the Nasdaq index fell 1.57% to close at 23581.14 points. The pullback occurred after the three major stock indexes hit new highs for four consecutive trading days, with concerns about artificial intelligence-related spending becoming a major drag.
Gold prices rose significantly on Thursday, with spot gold rising nearly 2.4% to close at $4,003.62 per ounce, and U.S. December gold futures rose 0.4% to settle at $4,015.9. This rise was mainly driven by two major factors: first, the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate cut increased the appeal of gold, and second, the market still had doubts about the actual effect of the latest trade agreement.
Jeffrey Christian, managing partner of CPMGroup, pointed out that although gold showed weakness during the session, as the market carefully examined the details of the trade negotiations, the initial optimism about the end of the trade war quickly faded, which provided support for gold prices. In a period of low interest rates and economic uncertainty, gold, which does not generate interest, is generally more valuable as an investment.
At the same time, the latest report from Wells Fargo Investment Research has significantly raised the gold price target for the end of 2026 from the original US$3900-4100 to a range of US$4500-4700. Analysts at the agency emphasized that ongoing geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties are expected to continue to drive demand for gold in the private and official sectors, thereby providing continued support for prices.
Other precious metals also performed strongly: spot silver rose 2.7% to US$48.81 per ounce; platinum rose 1.2% to US$1,604.38; palladium performed particularly well, jumping 3.4% in a single day to close at US$1,447.08 per ounce.
Oil prices remained stable on Thursday as investors assessed the outcome of trade negotiations. Brent crude oil futures rose 0.1% to close at US$65.00 per barrel; U.S. crude oil rose 0.1% to close at US$60.57 per barrel.
PVM analyst Tamas Varga said that investors believe that the agreement announced between the two countries is more about easing tensions than a structural change in the relationship between the two countries.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates on Wednesday, in line with market expectations and also helping to boost the economic outlook. Lower interest rates lower borrowing costs for consumers and could boost economic growth and oil demand. Meanwhile, in Europe and Asia, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan kept interest rates on hold.
Affected by concerns about oversupply, the prices of the two major crude oil futures in October fell by about 3%. This will be their third consecutive month of decline.
Investors said they are looking forward to the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for November 2, at which the alliance is likely to announce that December supply will increase by another 137,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies such as Russia.
The yen fell sharply against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, hitting nearly 9The monthly low was mainly due to the Bank of Japan maintaining its ultra-loose monetary policy stance, which disappointed market expectations of its recent interest rate hikes. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's previous hawkish statement on not guaranteeing an interest rate cut in December further boosted the strength of the US dollar.
The Bank of Japan decided to keep interest rates unchanged at this meeting. Although Governor Kazuo Ueda sent a signal that interest rates may be raised in December based on next year's wage outlook, the level of disagreement within the decision-makers was the same as in September, and Kazuo Ueda did not provide more details on the specific timetable for raising interest rates after the meeting, disappointing the market. Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto, pointed out that the Bank of Japan's inaction has hit yen bulls hard.
In sharp contrast, although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as scheduled, Powell made it clear that it was "undecided" whether to cut interest rates again in December and admitted that officials saw threats to the job market while being cautious about further cutting interest rates in the absence of www.centrdom.infoprehensive economic data. This relatively hawkish stance pushed the U.S. dollar index up 0.38% to 99.51, its highest level since August 1.
The U.S. dollar finally rose 0.9% against the yen to close at 154.08, the highest level since February 13. In terms of other major currencies, the euro fell 0.27% to $1.1568 and the pound fell 0.31% to $1.3152, both hitting multi-month lows. The market currently expects that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has dropped to 71% from 85% before Powell's speech, while both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected to maintain current policies unchanged in the near future.
According to CME "Fed Watch": the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 74.7%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 25.3%. The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by January next year is 57.7%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 16.6%, and the probability of cumulative interest rate cuts by 50 basis points is 25.6%.
On October 30, local time, the U.S. government's "shutdown" has entered its 30th day. Flights at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport and Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport were delayed on October 30, local time, due to a shortage of air traffic control personnel. The Federal Aviation Administration said the average flight delay at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport was 91 minutes and the average flight delay at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport was 21 minutes. Flights at Orlando Airport are also expected to be delayed that day due to staff shortages.
U.S. Vice President Vance said that if the government is shut down for a long time, it may cause travel obstacles during the busy holiday season. The White House is trying toIncrease pressure on Democrats over funding impasse. Vance's www.centrdom.infoments came after a roundtable with airline industry executives at the White House on Thursday.
The Federal Reserve’s top banking regulatory official announced plans to reorganize the agency supervision department and cut about 30% of the department’s staff. According to people familiar with the matter, Michelle, the Federal Reserve Vice Chairman responsible for regulatory affairs? Michelle Bowman said at a meeting with employees on Thursday that the staff reductions will be achieved mainly through attrition, employee retirement and voluntary separation incentives. A memo sent to staff said: "She expects the overall S&R staff size to be reduced to approximately 350 people by the end of 2026 - a reduction of approximately 30% from the previous approved staff strength of nearly 500 people."
Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon said that if the U.S. economic growth fails to improve, the current rising debt levels may face a "liquidation" of the economy. "If we continue on the current trajectory and growth levels don't improve, there will be a reckoning," Solomon said Thursday at an event hosted by the Economic Club of Washington. "The way out of this is economic growth." He believes the likelihood of the U.S. economy falling into recession in the short term is "low."
The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer's leasing violations continue to simmer. A Downing Street spokesman confirmed that Reeves' emails related to her husband's failure to obtain a rental license when renting out his home in southeast London have been submitted to the Prime Minister's Office and forwarded to the government's independent ethics adviser. It is reported that these emails are expected to be released later today. The spokesperson also made it clear to reporters that despite the turmoil, Minister Reese will still release the budget next month as planned. Previously, Reeves rented out his private residence after moving into the official residence at No. 11 Downing Street, but failed to obtain the rental permit required by the local council in time. After the incident, Reeves apologized to Prime Minister Starmer for the incident, saying it was an "unintentional mistake" and immediately applied for a new permit after realizing the problem. Prime Minister Starmer has previously consulted independent ethics adviser Sir Laurie Magnus about the incident, who decided not to launch a formal investigation. The release of this email may provide more details about this incident.
Europe’s top official responsible for handling failed banks is seeking assurances from the United States that the United States will not block other regulators from forcing bondholders to bear losses when major banks fail. Dominique Laboureix, head of Europe's Single Resolution Board (SRB), convened a panel at the Financial Stability Board (FSB) that is "seriously"dealt with the matter and received "some positive signals" from new leadership at the U.S. Securities and Exchange www.centrdom.infomission (SEC).
Leonid Mikhelson, chairman of Novatek, Russia’s second largest natural gas producer, said on the 30th that the West cannot exclude Russian LNG from the global balance of natural gas supply and demand. Forcibly doing so will lead to a sharp rise in natural gas prices and harm the interests of European consumers. Mikhelson said at the Verona Eurasian Economic Forum held in Istanbul, Turkey, that Russia's liquefied natural gas production accounts for more than 10% of the world, and it is unrealistic to remove it from the global natural gas supply and demand balance pattern.
The Ministry of www.centrdom.infomerce issued implementation opinions on expanding green trade. The opinion proposes to speed up the construction of the carbon footprint database of foreign trade products. Accelerate the construction of a national carbon footprint factor database, publish and continuously update electricity carbon footprint factor data, promote research on carbon footprint factors of other basic energy and raw materials, and provide a basis for foreign trade www.centrdom.infopanies to calculate product carbon footprints. Encourage qualified industries and enterprises to build industry carbon footprint factor databases. International carbon footprint database suppliers are encouraged to cooperate with my country’s carbon footprint database suppliers.
The National Data Administration issued the "Implementation Plan on Strengthening Scenario Application in the Pilot Trial of National Data Infrastructure Construction" and proposed to encourage the exploration of cutting-edge technologies such as intelligent packaging of data, trusted high-speed transmission, and multi-modal global storage and the construction of innovative scenarios based on data infrastructure. Support leading enterprises and scientific research institutions to jointly carry out cutting-edge technology adaptation verification based on data infrastructure, and provide technical support for large-scale promotion of scenarios. At the same time, we support and encourage the creation of other application scenarios that are replicable and conducive to releasing the value of data elements by relying on data infrastructure and playing the role of facilities.
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